Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042026 260409 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.40    151.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.3  29.7  26.4  27.3  31.4  22.4  21.1  15.9  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  103.0 101.0  99.0  99.0  96.0  95.0  94.0  95.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   113.0 117.0  84.0  71.0  48.0  58.0  81.0  78.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  74.0  72.0  64.0  61.0  59.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.6%        3.9%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h       24.3%       36.6%       30.4%
 30kt / 24h       12.0%       16.9%       14.5%
 35kt / 24h        3.4%       15.7%        9.6%
 40kt / 24h        3.3%       14.7%        9.0%
 45kt / 36h       21.9%       36.3%       29.1%
 55kt / 36h       11.4%       14.5%       13.0%
 55kt / 48h       49.1%       23.1%       36.1%
 70kt / 48h       25.1%       15.4%       20.2%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       54.2%       58.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.60

 WP042026 260409 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.40    151.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.3  29.7  26.4  27.3  31.4  22.4  21.1  15.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  74.0  72.0  64.0  61.0  59.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%