Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042026 260410 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.20    151.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  30.0  27.5  27.8  29.0  29.1  17.8  20.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  106.0 104.0 102.0 102.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  96.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 124.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    96.0 122.0  84.0  75.0  58.0  46.0  79.0  95.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  72.0  70.0  69.0  74.0  76.0  72.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.7%        7.9%        9.3%
 25kt / 24h       40.9%       49.9%       45.4%
 30kt / 24h       22.3%       28.4%       25.3%
 35kt / 24h       11.0%       28.4%       19.7%
 40kt / 24h        7.9%       26.8%       17.4%
 45kt / 36h       32.5%       48.2%       40.4%
 55kt / 36h       19.3%       23.8%       21.6%
 55kt / 48h       47.7%       26.7%       37.2%
 70kt / 48h       25.1%       19.0%       22.1%
 65kt / 72h       61.4%       52.4%       56.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.60

 WP042026 260410 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.20    151.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  30.0  27.5  27.8  29.0  29.1  17.8  20.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  72.0  70.0  69.0  74.0  76.0  72.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%