Rapid Intensification Guidance WP042026 260410 06UTC Storm Located at : 8.20 151.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 87.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 72.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.4 28.3 27.1 30.3 26.2 25.3 12.6 17.3 U N N N N N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 103.0 103.0 101.0 99.0 94.0 93.0 95.0 96.0 F F F F F F F F Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3 117.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 122.0 84.0 76.0 92.0 17.0 46.0 66.0 91.0 F N N F U N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 76.0 74.0 70.0 73.0 76.0 75.0 73.0 73.0 F N N N F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 F N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 13.5% 12.5% 13.0% 25kt / 24h 50.5% 59.8% 55.1% 30kt / 24h 28.0% 44.0% 36.0% 35kt / 24h 16.5% 44.0% 30.3% 40kt / 24h 11.3% 38.2% 24.7% 45kt / 36h 33.8% 56.9% 45.4% 55kt / 36h 19.9% 33.8% 26.9% 55kt / 48h 44.1% 35.0% 39.5% 70kt / 48h 24.3% 24.6% 24.4% 65kt / 72h 58.7% 58.7% 58.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.60 WP042026 260410 06UTC Storm Located at : 8.20 151.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.4 28.3 27.1 30.3 26.2 25.3 12.6 17.3 N N N N N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 76.0 74.0 70.0 73.0 76.0 75.0 73.0 73.0 U N N N U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 U N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%