Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042026 260410 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.10    150.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     92.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  27.1  31.3  28.9  29.0  17.8  17.0  17.1  N  N  U  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  103.0 103.0 101.0  97.0  94.0  94.0  95.0  97.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 109.3 109.3 107.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0  75.0  91.0  58.0  46.0  80.0  95.0  81.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  74.0  70.0  69.0  66.0  62.0  64.0  64.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       45.9%       28.3%       37.1%
 25kt / 24h       68.3%       73.0%       70.6%
 30kt / 24h       52.3%       65.6%       58.9%
 35kt / 24h       41.1%       65.6%       53.3%
 40kt / 24h       35.4%       61.0%       48.2%
 45kt / 36h       46.0%       65.1%       55.6%
 55kt / 36h       29.2%       44.3%       36.7%
 55kt / 48h       47.5%       44.5%       46.0%
 70kt / 48h       25.1%       31.4%       28.2%
 65kt / 72h       59.4%       57.6%       58.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.60

 WP042026 260410 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.10    150.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  27.1  31.3  28.9  29.0  17.8  17.0  17.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  74.0  70.0  69.0  66.0  62.0  64.0  64.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%