Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042026 260413 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70    147.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   145.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   145.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  18.5  19.0  19.2  20.8  19.2  24.0  27.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   92.0  92.0  92.0  91.0  81.0  69.0  56.0  37.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         12.3  12.3  10.1  10.1   7.9   3.6  -0.6  -4.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  63.0  28.0   3.0 -13.0 -18.0  -2.0 -19.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  61.0  60.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  59.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   5.0   7.0   3.0   5.0   4.0   8.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.06

 WP042026 260413 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70    147.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   145.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   145.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  18.5  19.0  19.2  20.8  19.2  24.0  27.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  61.0  60.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  59.0  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   5.0   7.0   3.0   5.0   4.0   8.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        7.1%        3.6%