Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042026 260414 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30    146.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     72.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.6  17.9  19.6  19.0  20.1  23.6  25.4  25.5  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   94.0  93.0  91.0  86.0  81.0  64.0  48.0  19.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         22.3  20.1  20.1  20.1  17.9  13.6   5.5  -0.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  19.0  38.0  41.0   3.0  22.0 -13.0  -2.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  51.0  55.0  55.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   8.0   5.0   6.0   5.0   5.0   6.0   5.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.04

 WP042026 260414 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30    146.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.6  17.9  19.6  19.0  20.1  23.6  25.4  25.5  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  51.0  55.0  55.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   8.0   5.0   6.0   5.0   5.0   6.0   5.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        8.3%        4.1%