Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042026 260414 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    145.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     81.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  19.7  22.3  21.1  24.3  20.3  27.5  32.9  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   91.0  91.0  86.0  81.0  70.0  47.0  19.0   9.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         30.1  30.1  27.9  27.9  23.6  15.5   9.8   2.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  30.0  11.0  -2.0  40.0   5.0  22.0  -3.0  U  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  59.0  60.0  58.0  61.0  59.0  63.0  63.0  N  U  N  U  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   5.0   8.0   7.0  11.0   3.0   3.0  15.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        1.4%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        1.9%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.98

 WP042026 260414 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    145.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  19.7  22.3  21.1  24.3  20.3  27.5  32.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  59.0  60.0  58.0  61.0  59.0  63.0  63.0  N  F  N  F  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   5.0   8.0   7.0  11.0   3.0   3.0  15.0  N  N  F  N  F  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        8.9%        4.4%