Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042026 260414 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    145.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  22.3  21.5  20.2  18.6  24.1  29.6  34.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   91.0  87.0  81.0  75.0  63.0  38.0  22.0   3.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.1  37.9  37.9  37.9  29.4  25.5  19.8   3.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  11.0  -2.0  25.0  41.0  19.0  12.0  19.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  56.0  58.0  58.0  63.0  63.0  66.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   8.0   8.0   9.0   8.0   6.0   6.0  18.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        1.1%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        2.0%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.5%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.94

 WP042026 260414 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    145.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  22.3  21.5  20.2  18.6  24.1  29.6  34.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  56.0  58.0  58.0  63.0  63.0  66.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   8.0   8.0   9.0   8.0   6.0   6.0  18.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       11.4%        5.7%