Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042026 260415 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    145.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  23.9  24.3  24.5  21.9  26.1  28.3  37.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   87.0  82.0  76.0  70.0  56.0  29.0  17.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         45.1  45.1  45.1  40.7  36.5  32.4  26.6   9.6  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  15.0  14.0  30.0  15.0  22.0  16.0  16.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  61.0  65.0  63.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  10.0  10.0  15.0   5.0   9.0  11.0  22.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        0.9%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.7%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.2%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.98

 WP042026 260415 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    145.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  23.9  24.3  24.5  21.9  26.1  28.3  37.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  61.0  65.0  63.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  10.0  10.0  15.0   5.0   9.0  11.0  22.0  N  F  F  F  N  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       13.2%        6.6%