Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042026 260415 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    144.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     57.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  21.6  20.2  17.7  25.4  33.0  33.5  47.7  N  N  N  F  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   77.0  72.0  65.0  57.0  28.0  15.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         45.1  40.7  40.7  36.5  26.6  19.4   9.6 -11.8  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0  39.0  22.0   2.0  50.0  15.0  11.0  41.0  U  N  U  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  60.0  57.0  61.0  59.0  59.0  63.0  U  U  N  U  N  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   9.0  12.0   6.0   5.0  11.0  22.0  44.0  N  U  U  N  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.2%        3.3%        5.8%
 25kt / 24h        4.8%        5.1%        5.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.8%        3.9%        3.9%
 35kt / 24h        3.2%        3.0%        3.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.84

 WP042026 260415 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    144.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  21.6  20.2  17.7  25.4  33.0  33.5  47.7  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  60.0  57.0  61.0  59.0  59.0  63.0  F  F  N  F  N  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   9.0  12.0   6.0   5.0  11.0  22.0  44.0  N  F  F  N  N  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        5.7%        2.9%