Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042026 260415 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    144.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     74.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  18.7  16.2  15.9  19.9  32.5  43.9  53.0  N  N  F  F  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   72.0  65.0  57.0  39.0  20.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.7  31.5  31.5  27.4  21.6   4.6  -5.6 -27.2  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  37.0  13.0  19.0  22.0  16.0  37.0  48.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  56.0  56.0  60.0  56.0  56.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   5.0   5.0   6.0   5.0   9.0  20.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.4%        6.5%       10.5%
 25kt / 24h        8.7%        8.1%        8.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.68

 WP042026 260415 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    144.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  18.7  16.2  15.9  19.9  32.5  43.9  53.0  N  N  U  U  N  N VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  56.0  56.0  60.0  56.0  56.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   5.0   5.0   6.0   5.0   9.0  20.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.7%        2.3%