Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042026 260416 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    144.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  16.4  15.8  19.8  22.6  36.0  46.9  52.0  N  F  F  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   66.0  58.0  49.0  40.0  14.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.7  46.5  42.4  42.4  29.4  19.6  -1.8 -20.8  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  13.0  19.0  29.0  11.0  30.0  33.0  76.0  N  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  55.0  56.0  58.0  55.0  52.0  56.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0   6.0   8.0   8.0  13.0  28.0  49.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        2.0%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%        3.9%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        3.0%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        2.3%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.60

 WP042026 260416 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    144.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  16.4  15.8  19.8  22.6  36.0  46.9  52.0  N  U  U  N  N  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  55.0  56.0  58.0  55.0  52.0  56.0  58.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0   6.0   8.0   8.0  13.0  28.0  49.0  N  N  N  F  F  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.3%        1.6%