Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042026 260416 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    144.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.6  19.4  19.7  18.2  29.7  40.4  48.8  55.6  F  N  N  F  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  49.0  40.0  29.0   9.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         46.5  46.5  42.4  36.6  29.4   9.4 -11.3 -26.6  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  16.0  25.0  30.0  14.0  26.0  39.0  78.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  55.0  56.0  59.0  57.0  56.0  60.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   3.0   4.0   7.0  22.0  45.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.9%        3.4%        4.1%
 25kt / 24h        3.1%        4.9%        4.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.3%        3.9%        3.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%        3.1%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.50

 WP042026 260416 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    144.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.6  19.4  19.7  18.2  29.7  40.4  48.8  55.6  U  N  N  N  N  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  55.0  56.0  59.0  57.0  56.0  60.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   3.0   4.0   7.0  22.0  45.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%