Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042026 260416 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40    144.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  24.1  22.8  21.3  36.5  46.2  48.0  60.3  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  40.0  21.0  14.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         52.4  52.4  46.6  46.6  29.6   8.2 -17.9 -26.8  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  12.0  17.0  27.0  25.0  35.0  77.0  89.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  53.0  56.0  55.0  55.0  57.0  62.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   4.0   5.0  21.0  40.0  54.0  48.0  N  N  N  N VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        1.1%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.8%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.2%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        0.8%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.32

 WP042026 260416 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40    144.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.