Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042026 260417 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.30    146.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.7  41.8  45.1  49.6  52.1  55.9  53.3  69.3  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         49.6  40.8  29.3  19.7   3.4  -1.0  -6.8 -10.3  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  44.0  39.0  59.0  48.0  44.0  70.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  56.0  57.0  59.0  50.0  45.0  39.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.0  33.0  25.0  61.0  73.0  24.0   1.0   6.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.32

 WP042026 260417 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.30    146.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.