Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042026 260418 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.30    146.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.8  44.7  49.5  51.3  52.3  53.2  65.4  62.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         45.8  34.3  24.7  15.0   3.4  -1.3  -5.3  -0.9  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  39.0  59.0  55.0  32.0  45.0  32.0  20.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  56.0  58.0  57.0  59.0  53.0  43.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  34.0  26.0  61.0  72.0  29.0  55.0  18.0 -15.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.52

 WP042026 260418 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.30    146.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.