Rapid Intensification Guidance WP042026 260418 12UTC Storm Located at : 24.30 147.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 2.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.10 F TC SIZE [%] 99.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 50.4 55.3 51.3 53.3 50.9 64.6 73.0 92.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 29.7 20.0 14.1 8.4 3.7 3.7 -3.4 -6.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 79.0 73.0 40.0 42.0 36.0 33.0 54.0 8.0 N N N N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 57.0 56.0 53.0 41.0 36.0 37.0 42.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 39.0 57.0 42.0 20.0 7.0 0.0 -47.0 -51.0 VU VU VU VU N N VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.72 WP042026 260418 12UTC Storm Located at : 24.30 147.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.