Rapid Intensification Guidance WP042026 260419 00UTC Storm Located at : 26.50 149.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.20 F TC SIZE [%] 87.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 52.1 50.3 52.5 54.4 59.8 74.3 97.2 91.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 19.1 13.4 14.6 9.1 5.1 1.6 -1.3 -3.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 48.0 23.0 38.0 41.0 35.0 27.0 12.0 2.0 N U N N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 52.0 45.0 42.0 37.0 34.0 39.0 42.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 31.0 11.0 16.0 36.0 -2.0 -54.0 -9.0 43.0 VU U U VU N VF F VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.32 WP042026 260419 00UTC Storm Located at : 26.50 149.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.