Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042026 260419 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.60    151.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        52.1  52.6  52.7  55.4  66.2  77.6  93.6  88.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         18.4  14.1  14.1  10.1   7.0   4.0   2.1  -0.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  38.0  41.0  40.0  18.0  47.0   9.0 -26.0  U  N  N  N  U  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  47.0  43.0  42.0  36.0  39.0  40.0  46.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  17.0  34.0  16.0 -34.0 -33.0  15.0  46.0  U  U VU  U VF VF  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 20.42

 WP042026 260419 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.60    151.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.