Rapid Intensification Guidance WP042026 260419 18UTC Storm Located at : 28.70 156.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.30 F TC SIZE [%] 93.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 57.3 57.8 53.7 53.0 61.0 88.4 85.2 72.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] 14.1 13.7 14.1 14.1 9.7 4.3 1.5 -1.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 24.0 12.0 14.0 19.0 26.0 -9.0 -26.0 -23.0 U U U U U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 42.0 37.0 31.0 32.0 38.0 48.0 47.0 U VU VU VU VU VU U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 18.0 -9.0 -15.0 -31.0 1.0 66.0 26.0 U VU F VF VF N VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 20.26 WP042026 260419 18UTC Storm Located at : 28.70 156.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.