Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052026 260506 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.20    146.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.9  14.7  13.9  12.1  14.9  21.6  20.0  20.5  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  114.0 114.0 115.0 117.0 111.0 100.0  94.0  95.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  46.0  51.0  45.0  41.0  55.0  54.0  26.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  66.0  68.0  69.0  65.0  64.0  59.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.7%       12.7%       10.7%
 25kt / 24h       39.6%       62.9%       51.3%
 30kt / 24h       26.9%       40.9%       33.9%
 35kt / 24h       20.9%       40.9%       30.9%
 40kt / 24h       20.9%       40.9%       30.9%
 45kt / 36h       47.6%       78.6%       63.1%
 55kt / 36h       41.5%       62.9%       52.2%
 55kt / 48h       73.3%       57.9%       65.6%
 70kt / 48h       63.6%       57.4%       60.5%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       78.1%       70.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.20

 WP052026 260506 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.20    146.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.9  14.7  13.9  12.1  14.9  21.6  20.0  20.5  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  66.0  68.0  69.0  65.0  64.0  59.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%