Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052026 260506 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.40    146.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     49.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.4  14.5  11.8  12.9  24.0  19.3  19.5  20.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  114.0 114.0 116.0 113.0 106.0  97.0  94.0  93.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  51.0  46.0  53.0  35.0  60.0  21.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  64.0  60.0  64.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   8.0   5.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.6%       10.7%        8.6%
 25kt / 24h       37.6%       60.1%       48.9%
 30kt / 24h       24.1%       41.1%       32.6%
 35kt / 24h       20.9%       40.0%       30.4%
 40kt / 24h       20.9%       40.0%       30.4%
 45kt / 36h       41.7%       66.2%       53.9%
 55kt / 36h       32.4%       45.5%       39.0%
 55kt / 48h       50.5%       50.6%       50.5%
 70kt / 48h       38.1%       41.1%       39.6%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       64.9%       63.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.22

 WP052026 260506 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.40    146.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     49.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.4  14.5  11.8  12.9  24.0  19.3  19.5  20.7  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  64.0  60.0  64.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   8.0   5.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%