Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052026 260506 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.40    145.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  16.7  18.2  21.7  19.4  22.2  20.5  27.5  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  116.0 117.0 113.0 109.0  98.0  94.0  94.0  90.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  46.0  57.0  57.0  54.0  27.0  48.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  57.0  58.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   3.0   1.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        2.4%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h       10.5%       25.4%       18.0%
 30kt / 24h        5.0%       10.6%        7.8%
 35kt / 24h        2.8%        8.3%        5.5%
 40kt / 24h        2.8%        8.0%        5.4%
 45kt / 36h       16.8%       29.2%       23.0%
 55kt / 36h       10.9%       10.4%       10.6%
 55kt / 48h       46.7%       22.5%       34.6%
 70kt / 48h       26.7%       12.1%       19.4%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       39.3%       51.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 WP052026 260506 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.40    145.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  16.7  18.2  21.7  19.4  22.2  20.5  27.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  57.0  58.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   3.0   1.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%