Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052026 260506 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.30    144.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  15.6  12.5  10.8  13.7  15.9  15.9  18.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  117.0 113.0 111.0 104.0  94.0  94.0  92.0  91.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  51.0  45.0  37.0  56.0  60.0  75.0  36.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  60.0  56.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   5.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        6.0%        4.4%
 25kt / 24h       23.9%       47.6%       35.8%
 30kt / 24h       14.7%       28.4%       21.6%
 35kt / 24h        9.5%       25.4%       17.4%
 40kt / 24h        9.5%       25.4%       17.4%
 45kt / 36h       36.9%       58.4%       47.7%
 55kt / 36h       28.0%       35.1%       31.5%
 55kt / 48h       45.7%       48.0%       46.8%
 70kt / 48h       33.2%       34.6%       33.9%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       66.4%       64.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.22

 WP052026 260506 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.30    144.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  15.6  12.5  10.8  13.7  15.9  15.9  18.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  60.0  56.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   5.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%