Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052026 260507 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.20    143.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  19.5  23.0  20.0  17.3  20.4  26.6  25.0  F  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  117.0 115.0 110.0 102.0  95.0  96.0  90.0  91.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  20.0  26.0  30.0  41.0  27.0   8.0  -6.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  64.0  64.0  60.0  61.0  59.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   2.0   4.0   3.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.8%        6.9%        4.8%
 25kt / 24h       19.8%       40.6%       30.2%
 30kt / 24h       11.2%       24.0%       17.6%
 35kt / 24h        5.0%       21.4%       13.2%
 40kt / 24h        5.0%       19.1%       12.0%
 45kt / 36h       24.3%       46.9%       35.6%
 55kt / 36h       18.0%       25.3%       21.6%
 55kt / 48h       47.4%       35.0%       41.2%
 70kt / 48h       26.8%       22.5%       24.6%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       43.1%       52.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.26

 WP052026 260507 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.20    143.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  19.5  23.0  20.0  17.3  20.4  26.6  25.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  64.0  64.0  60.0  61.0  59.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   2.0   4.0   3.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%