Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052026 260507 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.50    142.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  23.1  20.5  22.0  19.6  20.6  26.7  24.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  110.0 107.0 100.0  96.0  99.0  91.0  88.0  92.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  25.0  30.0  59.0  38.0  31.0  -6.0  -6.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  64.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  61.0  58.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   4.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        5.7%        3.9%
 25kt / 24h       19.3%       39.9%       29.6%
 30kt / 24h        9.9%       23.8%       16.8%
 35kt / 24h        3.7%       21.8%       12.7%
 40kt / 24h        3.7%       18.4%       11.1%
 45kt / 36h       21.0%       47.6%       34.3%
 55kt / 36h       14.8%       26.5%       20.6%
 55kt / 48h       49.5%       35.1%       42.3%
 70kt / 48h       26.0%       22.6%       24.3%
 65kt / 72h       62.1%       42.4%       52.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 WP052026 260507 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.50    142.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  23.1  20.5  22.0  19.6  20.6  26.7  24.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  64.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  61.0  58.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   4.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%