Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052026 260507 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.70    142.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  16.7  21.0  21.1  20.9  25.3  26.5  27.6  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  107.0 102.0  98.0  96.0  94.0  93.0  95.0 101.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  48.0  64.0  46.0  25.0  -5.0   1.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  59.0  59.0  58.0  55.0  56.0  54.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   2.0   4.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        4.5%        3.3%
 25kt / 24h       17.6%       34.9%       26.2%
 30kt / 24h        9.4%       18.7%       14.0%
 35kt / 24h        4.5%       16.6%       10.5%
 40kt / 24h        4.5%       15.4%        9.9%
 45kt / 36h       20.2%       38.7%       29.5%
 55kt / 36h       13.7%       18.5%       16.1%
 55kt / 48h       49.1%       24.8%       37.0%
 70kt / 48h       25.2%       14.1%       19.7%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       33.8%       48.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.20

 WP052026 260507 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.70    142.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  16.7  21.0  21.1  20.9  25.3  26.5  27.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  59.0  59.0  58.0  55.0  56.0  54.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   2.0   4.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%