Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052026 260507 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.10    141.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     57.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.6  13.8  15.4  14.2  18.1  19.6  16.7  15.1  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  100.0  96.0  95.0  98.0  92.0  88.0  96.0 109.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  78.0  73.0  73.0  87.0  53.0  69.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  55.0  57.0  57.0  52.0  52.0  51.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   6.0   6.0   7.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.3%        9.1%        6.2%
 25kt / 24h       35.2%       60.8%       48.0%
 30kt / 24h       17.5%       44.0%       30.7%
 35kt / 24h       10.9%       43.0%       26.9%
 40kt / 24h       10.9%       39.5%       25.2%
 45kt / 36h       39.2%       68.7%       54.0%
 55kt / 36h       26.7%       48.8%       37.7%
 55kt / 48h       43.9%       56.9%       50.4%
 70kt / 48h       29.1%       43.3%       36.2%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       64.1%       63.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.16

 WP052026 260507 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.10    141.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.6  13.8  15.4  14.2  18.1  19.6  16.7  15.1  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  55.0  57.0  57.0  52.0  52.0  51.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   6.0   6.0   7.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%