Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052026 260508 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.40    139.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  23.0  18.6  25.5  28.7  25.7  26.2  25.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   96.0  97.0  98.0  96.0  90.0  91.0 103.0 109.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  46.0  46.0  27.0  21.0   1.0  20.0   4.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  55.0  58.0  59.0  54.0  53.0  53.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   5.0   1.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.0%        9.7%        8.4%
 25kt / 24h       31.9%       52.3%       42.1%
 30kt / 24h       17.6%       35.4%       26.5%
 35kt / 24h        9.5%       35.4%       22.5%
 40kt / 24h        9.5%       31.1%       20.3%
 45kt / 36h       22.9%       47.8%       35.3%
 55kt / 36h       14.5%       26.2%       20.3%
 55kt / 48h       45.0%       27.0%       36.0%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       16.3%       20.5%
 65kt / 72h       57.3%       36.6%       47.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.12

 WP052026 260508 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.40    139.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  23.0  18.6  25.5  28.7  25.7  26.2  25.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  55.0  58.0  59.0  54.0  53.0  53.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   5.0   1.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%