Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052026 260508 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.70    138.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  22.0  25.0  29.3  25.7  23.6  22.6  20.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  102.0 100.0  94.0  88.0  87.0  98.0 104.0 110.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  66.0  70.0  52.0   0.0   4.0   3.0 -21.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  55.0  53.0  53.0  46.0  48.0  48.0  45.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   2.0   5.0   5.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.5%        6.5%        5.5%
 25kt / 24h       23.1%       37.5%       30.3%
 30kt / 24h       13.3%       20.5%       16.9%
 35kt / 24h        5.8%       19.5%       12.6%
 40kt / 24h        5.8%       18.2%       12.0%
 45kt / 36h       15.5%       34.1%       24.8%
 55kt / 36h        9.3%       15.1%       12.2%
 55kt / 48h       47.0%       20.4%       33.7%
 70kt / 48h       25.2%       11.2%       18.2%
 65kt / 72h       62.4%       32.0%       47.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.12

 WP052026 260508 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.70    138.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  22.0  25.0  29.3  25.7  23.6  22.6  20.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  55.0  53.0  53.0  46.0  48.0  48.0  45.0  F  F  F  F VF  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   2.0   5.0   5.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%