Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052026 260508 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.70    138.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  23.4  23.4  23.7  21.1  23.5  20.4  18.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  104.0  98.0  91.0  85.0  87.0  92.0  97.0  97.0  F  F  F  N  N  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  52.0  38.0  59.0  18.0   3.0 -17.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  57.0  54.0  55.0  53.0  58.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   5.0   4.0   3.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.3%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        5.2%       13.6%        9.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.5%        4.8%        3.6%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        3.7%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        3.7%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        6.8%       11.8%        9.3%
 55kt / 36h        3.6%        3.0%        3.3%
 55kt / 48h       41.4%        9.0%       25.2%
 70kt / 48h       22.1%        3.3%       12.7%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       18.8%       40.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.14

 WP052026 260508 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.70    138.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  23.4  23.4  23.7  21.1  23.5  20.4  18.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  57.0  54.0  55.0  53.0  58.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   5.0   4.0   3.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%