Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052026 260508 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.70    137.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  16.2  17.3  16.2  18.3  15.8  13.7  15.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   96.0  85.0  83.0  81.0  87.0  91.0  97.0 104.0  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  57.0  42.0  40.0  53.0  31.0  42.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  55.0  56.0  58.0  61.0  59.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        2.8%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h       10.8%       28.4%       19.6%
 30kt / 24h        5.2%       14.1%        9.7%
 35kt / 24h        3.8%       12.0%        7.9%
 40kt / 24h        3.8%       11.4%        7.6%
 45kt / 36h       16.4%       31.4%       23.9%
 55kt / 36h        9.7%       12.6%       11.1%
 55kt / 48h       49.5%       27.8%       38.7%
 70kt / 48h       25.7%       14.1%       19.9%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       50.4%       56.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.16

 WP052026 260508 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.70    137.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  16.2  17.3  16.2  18.3  15.8  13.7  15.0  U  U  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  55.0  56.0  58.0  61.0  59.0  61.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%