Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052026 260509 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.70    136.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  14.5  14.6  17.1  18.2  20.0  14.7  36.3  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   91.0  82.0  82.0  84.0  85.0  89.0  97.0 105.0  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  45.0  44.0  48.0  47.0  36.0  37.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  56.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  58.0  58.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        5.0%        3.6%
 25kt / 24h       19.2%       40.7%       29.9%
 30kt / 24h       10.6%       23.1%       16.8%
 35kt / 24h        6.8%       21.3%       14.0%
 40kt / 24h        6.8%       21.0%       13.9%
 45kt / 36h       22.9%       44.3%       33.6%
 55kt / 36h       15.2%       22.6%       18.9%
 55kt / 48h       48.4%       35.1%       41.8%
 70kt / 48h       26.5%       22.1%       24.3%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       51.5%       57.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.18

 WP052026 260509 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.70    136.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  14.5  14.6  17.1  18.2  20.0  14.7  36.3  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  56.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  58.0  58.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%