Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052026 260509 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.40    135.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.7  17.4  19.3  22.2  21.4  19.8  21.9  25.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   85.0  83.0  84.0  88.0  91.0  97.0 105.0 112.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  29.0  23.0  14.0  -7.0   2.0 -17.0 -46.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  57.0  59.0  57.0  57.0  60.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        4.3%        3.1%
 25kt / 24h       12.9%       32.2%       22.6%
 30kt / 24h        6.7%       16.9%       11.8%
 35kt / 24h        4.3%       15.2%        9.8%
 40kt / 24h        4.3%       13.7%        9.0%
 45kt / 36h       12.8%       33.1%       22.9%
 55kt / 36h        8.0%       14.3%       11.2%
 55kt / 48h       43.2%       21.8%       32.5%
 70kt / 48h       24.0%       12.1%       18.1%
 65kt / 72h       55.8%       33.4%       44.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.14

 WP052026 260509 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.40    135.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.7  17.4  19.3  22.2  21.4  19.8  21.9  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  57.0  59.0  57.0  57.0  60.0  54.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%