Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052026 260509 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.30    134.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  19.0  21.5  19.3  17.6  19.1  19.8  20.0  F  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   78.0  79.0  76.0  78.0  79.0  86.0  96.0 103.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  40.0  40.0  36.0  26.0  11.0   8.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  54.0  55.0  57.0  56.0  57.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        2.1%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        6.6%       22.1%       14.3%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%        9.9%        6.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        8.4%        4.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        7.4%        4.1%
 45kt / 36h        8.5%       27.7%       18.1%
 55kt / 36h        4.8%       11.0%        7.9%
 55kt / 48h       44.1%       21.8%       33.0%
 70kt / 48h       24.6%       11.8%       18.2%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       41.2%       51.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.16

 WP052026 260509 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.30    134.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  19.0  21.5  19.3  17.6  19.1  19.8  20.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  54.0  55.0  57.0  56.0  57.0  59.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%