Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052026 260509 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.80    134.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  21.6  21.9  23.9  16.6  19.2  57.1  21.4  N  N  N  N  F  N VU  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   80.0  78.0  80.0  78.0  83.0 100.0 108.0 113.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  42.0  33.0  85.0  19.0  15.0   8.0   4.0  N  N  N  F  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  55.0  58.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.9%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        6.6%       21.3%       13.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.3%        9.2%        5.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        7.8%        4.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        6.6%        3.9%
 45kt / 36h        9.8%       28.7%       19.3%
 55kt / 36h        5.2%       11.3%        8.2%
 55kt / 48h       45.0%       23.2%       34.1%
 70kt / 48h       24.9%       12.8%       18.8%
 65kt / 72h       61.0%       31.7%       46.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.14

 WP052026 260509 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.80    134.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  21.6  21.9  23.9  16.6  19.2  57.1  21.4  N  N  N  N  N  N VF  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  55.0  58.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  58.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%