Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052026 260510 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.30    133.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  26.2  23.0  22.0  24.5  25.7  23.9  21.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   82.0  85.0  83.0  90.0 107.0 114.0 118.0 120.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  11.0 -15.0 -22.0  -3.0 -38.0 -42.0 -12.0  N  U  U VU  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  57.0  54.0  53.0  56.0  55.0  57.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.8%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        5.1%       17.1%       11.1%
 30kt / 24h        2.4%        7.1%        4.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        5.8%        3.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        5.1%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h        6.4%       22.2%       14.3%
 55kt / 36h        4.3%        8.3%        6.3%
 55kt / 48h       34.7%       11.9%       23.3%
 70kt / 48h       17.4%        6.9%       12.1%
 65kt / 72h       50.6%       28.2%       39.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.10

 WP052026 260510 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.30    133.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  26.2  23.0  22.0  24.5  25.7  23.9  21.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  57.0  54.0  53.0  56.0  55.0  57.0  57.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%