Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052026 260510 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.10    131.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  24.2  22.3  20.1  22.8  23.8  21.1  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   78.0  79.0  85.0  94.0 104.0 114.0 122.0 123.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0 -15.0 -23.0 -11.0 -42.0 -47.0 -45.0 -11.0  U  U VU  U VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  51.0  51.0  48.0  48.0  47.0  46.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        6.6%        3.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.0%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        2.3%        9.1%        5.7%
 55kt / 36h        1.6%        2.4%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h       33.0%        5.9%       19.4%
 70kt / 48h       15.9%        2.9%        9.4%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       20.3%       41.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.16

 WP052026 260510 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.10    131.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  24.2  22.3  20.1  22.8  23.8  21.1  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  51.0  51.0  48.0  48.0  47.0  46.0  44.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%