Rapid Intensification Guidance WP052026 260510 12UTC Storm Located at : 10.30 131.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 41.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.3 22.2 22.5 23.2 20.6 22.9 21.9 36.2 N N N N N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 78.0 84.0 92.0 94.0 114.0 120.0 120.0 116.0 N N F F F F F F Potential [kt] 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -16.0 -9.0 -23.0 -32.0 -43.0 -44.0 -12.0 -12.0 U U VU VU VU VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 53.0 50.0 52.0 48.0 54.0 52.0 57.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 0.8% 7.2% 4.0% 30kt / 24h 0.4% 2.2% 1.3% 35kt / 24h 0.4% 1.5% 1.0% 40kt / 24h 0.4% 1.5% 0.9% 45kt / 36h 2.5% 10.4% 6.5% 55kt / 36h 2.0% 2.8% 2.4% 55kt / 48h 34.5% 6.8% 20.6% 70kt / 48h 17.8% 3.4% 10.6% 65kt / 72h 58.5% 19.7% 39.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.18 WP052026 260510 12UTC Storm Located at : 10.30 131.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F TC SIZE [%] 41.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.3 22.2 22.5 23.2 20.6 22.9 21.9 36.2 N N N N N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 53.0 50.0 52.0 48.0 54.0 52.0 57.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%