Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052026 260510 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70    130.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  22.6  23.6  21.2  18.0  18.0  18.6  17.1  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   84.0  92.0 101.0 101.0 116.0 123.0 122.0 122.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -11.0 -23.0 -32.0 -28.0 -42.0 -55.0 -37.0 -22.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  50.0  48.0  48.0  47.0  46.0  42.0  46.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        2.2%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        5.0%       19.9%       12.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%        8.5%        5.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        6.9%        3.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        5.5%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h        6.2%       32.2%       19.2%
 55kt / 36h        5.1%       14.4%        9.7%
 55kt / 48h       45.0%       19.4%       32.2%
 70kt / 48h       25.1%       14.4%       19.7%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       50.2%       56.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.16

 WP052026 260510 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70    130.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  22.6  23.6  21.2  18.0  18.0  18.6  17.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  50.0  48.0  48.0  47.0  46.0  42.0  46.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%