Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052026 260511 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.00    130.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  20.8  23.1  23.2  18.2  19.9  18.5  18.7  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   92.0 100.0 109.0 117.0 121.0 123.0 120.0 119.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -10.0 -27.0 -31.0 -27.0 -55.0 -23.0 -37.0  -2.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  50.0  51.0  51.0  47.0  50.0  49.0  51.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        2.6%       15.1%        8.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        6.2%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        4.6%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.4%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        4.1%       27.8%       15.9%
 55kt / 36h        3.6%       12.2%        7.9%
 55kt / 48h       47.2%       18.8%       33.0%
 70kt / 48h       25.1%       13.5%       19.3%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       51.9%       57.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.14

 WP052026 260511 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.00    130.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  20.8  23.1  23.2  18.2  19.9  18.5  18.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  50.0  51.0  51.0  47.0  50.0  49.0  51.0  F  F  F  F VF  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%