Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052026 260511 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.60    130.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  23.6  23.2  21.8  19.6  24.3  21.3  18.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   99.0 107.0 115.0 119.0 120.0 116.0 113.0 113.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -27.0 -31.0 -27.0 -24.0 -22.0 -36.0  -9.0  15.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  54.0  51.0  50.0  52.0  50.0  52.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.9%       11.7%        6.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        4.4%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        3.1%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        3.5%       21.6%       12.5%
 55kt / 36h        3.2%        8.5%        5.9%
 55kt / 48h       44.5%       13.0%       28.7%
 70kt / 48h       24.9%        8.7%       16.8%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       42.4%       52.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.12

 WP052026 260511 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.60    130.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  23.6  23.2  21.8  19.6  24.3  21.3  18.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  54.0  51.0  50.0  52.0  50.0  52.0  48.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%