Rapid Intensification Guidance WP052026 260511 12UTC Storm Located at : 11.60 131.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 7.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 6.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.40 F TC SIZE [%] 68.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.3 25.5 20.9 21.3 21.9 20.2 52.2 18.9 N N N N N N VU N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 98.0 106.0 112.0 116.0 117.0 116.0 116.0 116.0 F F F F F F F F Potential [kt] 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -31.0 -27.0 -53.0 -65.0 -20.0 -8.0 -5.0 -9.0 VU VU VU VU VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 57.0 53.0 50.0 54.0 51.0 51.0 47.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 1.8% 10.7% 6.3% 30kt / 24h 0.9% 3.6% 2.3% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 2.5% 1.4% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 2.3% 1.3% 45kt / 36h 4.1% 19.0% 11.5% 55kt / 36h 4.1% 6.9% 5.5% 55kt / 48h 45.5% 11.5% 28.5% 70kt / 48h 25.2% 8.7% 16.9% 65kt / 72h 62.3% 32.4% 47.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.06 WP052026 260511 12UTC Storm Located at : 11.60 131.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 68.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.3 25.5 20.9 21.3 21.9 20.2 52.2 18.9 N N N N N N VF N Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 57.0 53.0 50.0 54.0 51.0 51.0 47.0 F F F F F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%