Rapid Intensification Guidance WP052026 260512 00UTC Storm Located at : 12.60 129.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 3.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.30 F TC SIZE [%] 62.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.6 20.2 20.9 23.2 16.8 18.3 13.5 17.0 N N N N F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 115.0 122.0 122.0 124.0 122.0 119.0 119.0 121.0 F F F F F F F F Potential [kt] 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -33.0 -30.0 -39.0 -27.0 -44.0 -7.0 -7.0 14.0 VU VU VU VU VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 46.0 48.0 48.0 47.0 45.0 43.0 47.0 U VU U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 1.3% 0.8% 25kt / 24h 2.4% 12.1% 7.2% 30kt / 24h 1.4% 3.9% 2.6% 35kt / 24h 0.4% 2.6% 1.5% 40kt / 24h 0.4% 2.4% 1.4% 45kt / 36h 5.8% 22.9% 14.3% 55kt / 36h 5.8% 8.2% 7.0% 55kt / 48h 48.2% 14.4% 31.3% 70kt / 48h 26.8% 11.3% 19.0% 65kt / 72h 62.6% 53.8% 58.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.12 WP052026 260512 00UTC Storm Located at : 12.60 129.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F TC SIZE [%] 62.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.6 20.2 20.9 23.2 16.8 18.3 13.5 17.0 N N N N N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 46.0 48.0 48.0 47.0 45.0 43.0 47.0 F VF F F VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%