Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052026 260512 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    129.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.6  31.2  25.7  20.1  22.5  13.9  18.6  16.3  U  U  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  122.0 124.0 120.0 120.0 112.0 112.0 115.0 114.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -34.0 -36.0  -6.0  -7.0 -20.0  -5.0   1.0 -13.0 VU VU  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  48.0  49.0  49.0  48.0  54.0  54.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.7%        9.0%        5.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        2.6%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        4.1%       17.6%       10.8%
 55kt / 36h        3.9%        5.3%        4.6%
 55kt / 48h       49.5%       11.6%       30.5%
 70kt / 48h       25.8%        8.8%       17.3%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       46.7%       54.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.10

 WP052026 260512 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    129.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.6  31.2  25.7  20.1  22.5  13.9  18.6  16.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  48.0  49.0  49.0  48.0  54.0  54.0  59.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%