Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052026 260512 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    128.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     38.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  24.2  19.7  22.7  20.2  17.1  19.0  13.9  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  122.0 122.0 115.0 114.0 112.0 111.0 111.0 110.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -48.0 -24.0 -28.0 -40.0 -18.0 -11.0 -17.0 -24.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  46.0  48.0  50.0  51.0  56.0  54.0  60.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.7%       10.0%        5.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        3.0%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        2.0%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        1.8%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        4.1%       18.7%       11.4%
 55kt / 36h        4.1%        5.9%        5.0%
 55kt / 48h       49.0%       11.5%       30.2%
 70kt / 48h       25.3%        8.7%       17.0%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       45.1%       53.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.10

 WP052026 260512 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    128.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     38.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  24.2  19.7  22.7  20.2  17.1  19.0  13.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  46.0  48.0  50.0  51.0  56.0  54.0  60.0 VF VF  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%