Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052026 260513 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    128.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     48.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.8  24.1  28.6  25.9  15.5  22.8  17.2  18.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  123.0 118.0 116.0 108.0 107.0 107.0 107.0 107.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -16.0 -21.0 -38.0 -34.0 -30.0 -21.0 -27.0 -22.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  47.0  49.0  48.0  49.0  50.0  51.0  51.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%        8.6%        5.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        2.4%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.4%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        4.0%       19.0%       11.5%
 55kt / 36h        3.9%        5.9%        4.9%
 55kt / 48h       46.9%        9.8%       28.4%
 70kt / 48h       25.1%        7.2%       16.2%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       39.0%       50.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.20

 WP052026 260513 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    128.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     48.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.8  24.1  28.6  25.9  15.5  22.8  17.2  18.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  47.0  49.0  48.0  49.0  50.0  51.0  51.0 VF VF  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%