Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052026 260513 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    129.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  29.5  29.9  23.3  25.3  26.9  26.6  24.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  119.0 119.0 118.0 113.0 117.0 116.0 112.0 113.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -23.0 -37.0 -27.0  -7.0 -18.0 -16.0 -22.0 -42.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  47.0  45.0  45.0  46.0  45.0  49.0  48.0  U VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.6%        8.7%        5.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        2.5%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.5%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        4.2%       16.4%       10.3%
 55kt / 36h        4.0%        4.9%        4.4%
 55kt / 48h       48.2%        7.7%       27.9%
 70kt / 48h       25.1%        5.4%       15.3%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       28.0%       45.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.16

 WP052026 260513 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    129.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  29.5  29.9  23.3  25.3  26.9  26.6  24.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  47.0  45.0  45.0  46.0  45.0  49.0  48.0  F VF VF VF VF VF  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%