Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052026 260513 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    130.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     33.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.8  29.5  21.7  25.8  26.6  35.8  29.3  24.4  U  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  117.0 117.0 117.0 117.0 117.0 113.0 108.0 104.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -12.0   7.0  -5.0 -11.0   7.0 -28.0 -26.0 -28.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  52.0  52.0  51.0  50.0  58.0  58.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        8.9%        5.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.3%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.2%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        2.8%       18.6%       10.7%
 55kt / 36h        2.3%        5.3%        3.8%
 55kt / 48h       42.4%        6.5%       24.4%
 70kt / 48h       23.2%        5.2%       14.2%
 65kt / 72h       59.1%       25.8%       42.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.10

 WP052026 260513 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    130.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     33.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.8  29.5  21.7  25.8  26.6  35.8  29.3  24.4  F  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  52.0  52.0  51.0  50.0  58.0  58.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%