Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062026 260527 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.30    137.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  21.4  24.5  20.1  24.9  24.1  21.8  16.7  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   97.0  98.0 107.0 112.0 122.0 114.0 100.0  79.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    96.0  94.0  86.0  72.0  95.0  80.0  49.0  -6.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  77.0  76.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  73.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -6.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        2.5%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h       13.8%       30.2%       22.0%
 30kt / 24h        6.1%       12.0%        9.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        9.9%        5.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        9.9%        5.6%
 45kt / 36h       23.7%       42.5%       33.1%
 55kt / 36h       15.3%       18.2%       16.7%
 55kt / 48h       41.9%       32.0%       36.9%
 70kt / 48h       25.4%       25.2%       25.3%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       64.9%       63.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.30

 WP062026 260527 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.30    137.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  21.4  24.5  20.1  24.9  24.1  21.8  16.7  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  77.0  76.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  73.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -6.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%